Aerodrome Investment Design (PPP, St. Petersburg)

Project: Development of international infrastructure projects

Role: Lead Investment Analyst / Financial Model Architect

1. Project Uniqueness and Scale of Execution

Development of a full-cycle investment justification for creating a multifunctional aerodrome complex based on the “Bychye Pole” runway (Kotlin Island). The project was implemented in the format of a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) commissioned by the Transport Committee of the Government of St. Petersburg.

Key Feature:

Unlike typical commercial calculations, this project required deep integration of socio-economic efficiency into the financial model. A unique methodology for monetizing social effects was developed, which allowed justifying the project’s attractiveness to the state even with a long payback period for pure commercial operations.

2. Depth of Analytical Preparation

The work included not only financial modeling but also comprehensive market research and technical architecture analysis:

• Detailed Analysis of Aircraft Fleet:
  An audit of the entire fleet of helicopters and light aircraft in the North-Western Federal District (NWFD) was conducted. Classification was performed by dimensions (medium/large), storage types (hangar/open), and ownership (legal entities/individuals). This allowed for precise calculation of parking space requirements, hangar areas, and basing revenue.
• Traffic Forecasting:
  Dynamic models of flight growth were developed considering a forced scenario for general aviation development (growth rates up to 15% annually). Seasonality, aircraft types (from Robinson R-44 to Mi-8), and operational specifics were taken into account.
• Infrastructure Architecture:
  Phased commissioning of facilities was designed: from administrative buildings and the Control Tower to complex technical zones (MRO, Fueling Complex, snow removal equipment). Capital expenditures (CAPEX) were calculated with a breakdown by construction years up to 2040.

3. Accounting for Social Effects as an Investment Driver

The uniqueness of the approach lay in translating intangible benefits into cash flows:

• Safety and Emergency Services (EMERCOM):
  The social effect of increasing the efficiency of fighting forest fires in the region was calculated. Reduced direct damage, preservation of human lives, and decreased state costs for emergency response due to the use of new aerodrome aviation were taken into account.
• Employment and Territory Development:
  The project’s contribution to job creation, development of Kronstadt’s island infrastructure, and relief of the main “Pulkovo” airport from general aviation traffic was assessed.
• Integral Assessment:
  A system of weighted coefficients of social orientation was introduced, which proved the state significance of the project and justified budget support measures.

4. International-Level Financial Modeling

A detailed Cash Flow model was built for a 25-year horizon (until 2043).

Key performance indicators were calculated: NPV, IRR, PI, DPP, taking into account the social discount rate.

Sensitivity analysis of the project to changes in key factors (tariffs, CAPEX volume, capacity utilization) was conducted.

A legal PPP scheme (concession agreement) was developed with risk distribution between the private investor and the state.

Why is this a strong case?

• Scale: Working not with a “calculator,” but with a complex system where finance, engineering, law, and sociology intersect.
• Method Uniqueness: Calculating what others ignore (social effects) and translating it into the language of money.
• Real Data: Based on Rosaviatsia statistics, aircraft registries, and Ministry of Transport regulations.
• International Standard: The project structure (Due Diligence, CAPEX/OPEX, Risk Analysis, Social Impact Assessment) fully complies with the requirements of international investors and development institutions (such as the EBRD or the World Bank).